As September unfolds, global markets approach the final quarter of 2025 with a mix of caution and opportunism. According to the IMF, global growth is expected to hover around 3% this year, a figure that masks a highly uneven landscape: advanced economies struggle to overcome monetary constraints, while several emerging markets continue to display robust momentum.
The United States and China: Key Influencers
In the United States, a strong labor market continues to support consumption. However, persistently high interest rates weigh on credit and the real estate sector. Federal industrial policies (from the Inflation Reduction Act to semiconductor subsidies) remain significant drivers for the energy transition and strategic technology sectors.
China presents a more ambivalent picture: a fragile real estate sector is offset by massive investment in electric vehicles, batteries, and artificial intelligence. Beijing exerts direct influence over the prices of critical metals, including copper, lithium, and cobalt, where global demand exceeds supply.
In Europe, growth remains subdued. Weak consumption, high energy costs, and fiscal uncertainties constrain the recovery. Yet, the continent exerts a decisive regulatory influence: the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD/CS3D) are reshaping corporate practices and directing capital toward more sustainable projects.
Commodities: Tensions and Opportunities
The FAO Food Price Index shows a near 7% year-on-year increase, driven by meat, oils, and sugar. Biofuel policies further tighten supply available for food consumption. These pressures contribute to inflation in importing countries, while also creating investment opportunities in:
- Agri-tech: drought-resistant seeds, precision irrigation
- Food logistics: silos, refrigerated transport
- Agricultural derivatives: risk management and hedging instruments
For critical minerals, structural imbalances are intensifying. Accelerated demand from the energy transition coincides with long lead times for new mining projects. Copper and lithium prices are soaring, highlighting opportunities in battery recycling and circular economy solutions.
Crises and Monetary Policy
Geopolitical tensions (from the Middle East to Eastern Europe) are reigniting volatility in energy markets. Europe remains exposed to potential spikes in gas and oil prices, complicating the European Central Bank’s efforts to maintain elevated rates amid persistent core inflation.
The Federal Reserve follows a similarly cautious approach. As a result, the cost of capital is expected to remain high over the coming quarters, penalizing highly leveraged firms while supporting quality assets and short-term bonds.
ESG: A New Frontier of Opportunity
European ESG policy represents one of 2025’s most significant structural shifts. The expansion of mandatory reporting standards and due diligence requirements increases transparency while raising compliance costs. For investors, these regulations provide a valuable selection tool, fostering the growth of new markets, including:
- Traceability technologies (blockchain, AI)
- Specialized ESG audit firms
- Green bonds linked to measurable performance targets
Balancing Prudence and Boldness
As the year-end approaches, investors face a delicate equation: a resilient global economy that remains vulnerable to geopolitical and climate shocks, persistently high interest rates, and ESG regulations reshaping value chains.
Opportunities abound: recycling and circular economy initiatives to secure metal supply, precision agriculture to mitigate climate risks, nearshoring infrastructure benefiting from repositioned supply chains, and sustainable finance supported by transparent performance indicators.
The conclusion is clear: diversify with caution, invest selectively. Market success will depend less on short-term returns and more on capturing long-term structural trends that are already reshaping the global economy.
Sources
- International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2025.
- Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAO Food Price Index, August 2025.
- Reuters, “World food prices at 2-year high on rising meat and edible oils, FAO,” 8 August 2025.
- International Energy Agency (IEA), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, May 2025.
- The Guardian, “Copper supply to fall 30% short of demand by 2035, says IEA,” 21 May 2025.
- The Wall Street Journal, “Critical Minerals Supply Risks Mount Amid China’s Grip, Export Curbs,” 2025.
- European Central Bank (ECB), Monetary Policy Minutes, Summer 2025.
- Federal Reserve (Fed), Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 2025.
- European Commission, Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD/CS3D), consolidated texts 2025.