In the world of commodities – where fortunes have always hinged on weather, war, and speculation – a new force is rewriting the rules: artificial intelligence. Unlike previous cycles of innovation, AI doesn’t merely improve existing processes – it redefines what’s possible, who controls it, and how quickly power can shift.
As we step further into 2025, AI is no longer a novel feature of industrial systems. It is a strategic asset – central to how energy is sourced, food is grown, and metals are tracked and traded. But are we prepared for what comes next?
Metals: Intelligence at the Source
From lithium to rare earths, the metals that power the green transition are now themselves powered by AI.
- The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, enacted in 2023, has fast-tracked 47 strategic mining and processing projects across 13 countries to meet self-sufficiency goals in key inputs like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. While the regulation is about sovereignty and supply security, it also hinges on AI-enabled tracking and ESG monitoring to meet new green standards.
Investor insight: Will Europe’s bet on AI-enabled mineral independence reduce its dependency on China – or simply shift it from material to algorithmic dominance?
- Machine learning is revolutionizing exploration and operations. Tech-savvy mining firms are leveraging AI to analyse geological data faster and identify new resource-rich zones at a fraction of the traditional cost. BHP and Anglo American have both announced partnerships in this space.
- However, ownership of AI capabilities is uneven. With over 75% of AI patents related to critical minerals held in the U.S., China, and a few EU states (WIPO 2024), resource-rich countries in Africa and South America risk becoming algorithmically dependent – despite holding the ground beneath the supply chain.
Agriculture: From Precision to Predicament
Nowhere is the promise of AI more immediate – and more contentious – than in agriculture.
- Digital agriculture tools, from satellite-guided sowing to AI weather prediction, have sharply increased yields in large-scale farms. The USDA reports that farms using AI-assisted precision agriculture see up to 15 – 20% gains in productivity and substantial input savings (USDA 2024 SmartFarming Bulletin).
- But a gap is growing: smallholders in Latin America, Africa, and South Asia often lack access to this technology. The FAO warns of a “digital divide” creating a two-speed agricultural economy, where smallholders face higher compliance costs for traceability (especially in the EU) and lower competitiveness.
- The EU’s “Farm to Fork” strategy mandates transparency from seed to supermarket. But for farmers in emerging economies, the cost of blockchain and AI traceability systems may exceed their entire annual tech budget.
Strategic question: If food security is a global issue, who ensures that digital agriculture is a shared advantage – not a new form of agricultural protectionism?
Energy: The Double-Edged Disruption
AI is now as essential to an oil rig as to a solar farm. But what does that mean for the transition?
- AI is helping fossil fuel giants run cleaner, faster, cheaper. Predictive maintenance, seismic analysis, and drilling optimization have delivered cost and time savings for companies like ExxonMobil and Shell. These efficiency gains may extend the life of oil and gas assets – potentially delaying net-zero transitions.
- Yet the same AI tools are supercharging renewables:
- Neural networks are now used to design wind farm layouts with up to 30% higher yield (MIT/ArXiv, 2025).
- AI-enhanced grid systems are reducing solar energy waste by forecasting consumption patterns and grid bottlenecks.
- Meanwhile, carbon capture is getting smarter. Machine learning models now optimize capture rates and site selection, though capacity still lags far behind global emissions needs (current CCS deployment: around 250 million tonnes/year, Global CCS Institute 2024).
Policy tension: Will AI delay the death of fossil fuels – or ensure the birth of a smarter, faster energy transition?
Regulation: Behind the Curve?
As AI’s reach extends, regulators are racing to catch up.
- The EU’s AI Act, expected to take full effect in 2026, will mandate transparency and auditability in high-risk applications – including commodities trading algorithms.
- In the U.S., the CFTC and SEC have begun pilot programs to monitor algorithmic trading in agricultural and energy markets, but a comprehensive AI governance framework remains elusive.
- The UNCTAD’s 2024 report on “Digital Trade and Development” raises concerns of “algorithmic asymmetry” – where countries without AI infrastructure lose negotiating power in everything from grain exports to carbon credits.
Governance challenge: Can global institutions develop frameworks fast enough to prevent a concentration of digital power that mirrors the monopolies of the past?
What Comes Next?
The integration of AI into commodities markets raises urgent questions for investors, policymakers, and multinational firms:
- Efficiency vs. equity: Will AI create resilient supply chains or simply more efficient exclusion zones?
- Data sovereignty: Who owns the intelligence that governs resource flows?
- New monopolies: If data is the new oil, who are the new OPEC?
OECD’s 2025 Commodities Outlook cautions: “The AI revolution is not just about more data. It’s about who controls the levers of global resource value—and how inclusive that control will be.”
Final Thought: The Intelligence Imperative
In 2025, AI is not a future disruptor. It is the present differentiator. The firms and nations that lead in intelligent resource systems will not only shape trade flows – they will shape geopolitics.
The question is no longer whether to adopt AI. It’s whether you’re prepared to play by a new set of rules – and who’s writing them.
Sources
• European Commission: Critical Raw Materials Act 2023 Overview
• Reuters: “EU announces 47 strategic raw materials projects”, March 2025
• USDA: Smart Farming Bulletin 2024
• FAO: Digital Agriculture & Equity Outlook 2024
• MIT / ArXiv: Machine-Learning Optimized Wind Farms, 2025
• Global CCS Institute: Global Status Report 2024
• UNCTAD: Digital Trade and Development Report 2024
• OECD: Commodities Outlook 2025