As of July 2025, over 95% of all Bitcoin has been mined. According to Clark Moody’s Bitcoin dashboard, roughly 19.9 million BTC out of the total fixed supply of 21 million are already in circulation. This leaves less than 1.1 million coins to be mined – a remainder currently valued at around $130 billion.
With the end of new Bitcoin issuance on the horizon, markets are entering a new phase: not one of speculative mining booms, but of increasing scarcity, institutional demand, and regulatory maturity.
Built-in Scarcity: The Halving Mechanism
Bitcoin’s architecture enforces strict monetary discipline. Every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years, the reward miners receive for adding a new block is cut in half – a process known as halving. Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has undergone four halvings, the most recent in April 2024, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC.
This mechanism ensures predictable issuance. While the final Bitcoin won’t be mined until around 2140, over 99% will be in circulation by January 2035, making Bitcoin more deflationary over time than gold or fiat currencies.
Global Outlook (2025 – 2030)
1. Institutional Integration Accelerates
Since 2024, Bitcoin has become a strategic allocation for global investors, particularly following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., Brazil, UK, and Japan. Major asset managers – including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton – now report growing inflows into regulated Bitcoin products.
This shift marks a maturation of the asset class: Bitcoin is no longer just a retail phenomenon, but increasingly a part of diversified portfolios, sovereign wealth strategies, and macro hedges.
2. Bitcoin in Emerging Markets
In countries facing currency instability or capital controls – such as Argentina, Nigeria, and Lebanon – Bitcoin adoption continues to rise. Peer-to-peer volumes and merchant acceptance are growing, making Bitcoin a practical economic tool in parallel to its role as a speculative asset.
According to Chainalysis, emerging markets generated over $300 billion in on-chain Bitcoin transactions in the first half of 2025 alone.
3. Historical Halving Trends Support Bullish Sentiment
Past halving cycles – in 2012, 2016, and 2020 – were followed by significant market rallies within 12 – 18 months. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns, many analysts anticipate similar momentum in late 2025 through 2026, driven by declining new supply and steady demand growth.
European Union Outlook: Regulatory Clarity and Institutional Opportunity
1. MiCA: Europe’s Crypto Framework
In January 2025, the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation officially took effect across the EU. This harmonized legal framework sets clear standards for:
- Licensing of crypto service providers
- Custody and reserve requirements
- Consumer protections and disclosures
MiCA has opened the door for EU institutional capital to enter the Bitcoin market via compliant platforms. Countries like Germany, the Netherlands, and France are leading the way in integrating Bitcoin exposure within regulated investment vehicles.
2. ESG and Tax Frictions
Retail growth in some EU states is constrained by high capital gains taxes (e.g. France, Belgium), and concerns over environmental sustainability (especially in Germany and the Nordics). However, Swiss-based custodians and pan-European investment vehicles are mitigating some of these barriers, making Bitcoin exposure increasingly accessible.
3. Bitcoin as a Strategic Hedge
While the European Central Bank (ECB) does not recognize Bitcoin as a currency, some Eurozone policymakers and institutional investors view it as a strategic diversification tool – especially in light of efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and bolster financial sovereignty.
ESG Pressures: Bitcoin’s Green Transition
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria are becoming a central lens through which investors assess Bitcoin-related assets.
Historically criticized for its high energy use, Bitcoin mining has made substantial progress. As of 2025:
- Over 59% of global mining is powered by renewables or carbon-neutral sources, according to the Bitcoin Mining Council.
- Major public miners are now releasing audited sustainability reports.
- Renewable-rich regions like Canada, Scandinavia, and Paraguay are attracting ESG-conscious mining operations.
In Europe, ESG regulations are prompting asset managers to re-evaluate Bitcoin’s role in green portfolios. The emergence of “green-mined Bitcoin” – verifiably produced with renewable energy – may become a key qualifier for institutional adoption.
At the same time, miners in carbon-intensive regions could face increased costs, regulatory pressure, or exclusion from ESG investment indices. Investors are advised to conduct ESG due diligence when selecting mining equities or exchange-traded products.
Bitcoin Forecast 2025 – 2030: Key Milestones
| Year | Global Supply Progress | Market Outlook |
| 2025 | ~95% mined | Post-halving accumulation, ETF adoption, ESG scrutiny |
| 2026 | ~96.5% mined | Scarcity effect intensifies, rising institutional interest |
| 2027 | ~97.5% mined | Emerging market expansion, ESG-compliant Bitcoin markets mature |
| 2028 | Fifth Halving Event | Block reward halves to 1.5625 BTC, potential new bull cycle |
| 2030 | ~98.5% mined | Bitcoin increasingly normalized in global asset allocation |
Conclusion: The Last Stretch of the Bitcoin Issuance Era
Bitcoin’s design is no longer a theory – it’s playing out in real time. With most of its supply already in circulation and demand rising from institutions, retail, and emerging economies, Bitcoin is entering a phase defined by digital scarcity.
The next five years may represent the final chapter of significant new issuance. Combined with maturing regulation, ESG alignment, and rising macro relevance, this makes Bitcoin a compelling – though still volatile – addition to long-term investment strategies.
Sources:
- Clark Moody Bitcoin Dashboard
- Bitcoin Mining Council (BMC)
- Chainalysis
- European Union: Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Regulation
- European Central Bank (ECB)
- Fidelity Digital Assets
- BlackRock iShares: Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch & Flows
- Franklin Templeton: Digital Asset Insights
- CoinShares – Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Reports (2025)
- Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF)
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
- International Energy Agency (IEA)