Global Context : Markets & Macro Climate
- The week in Europe opens under a cautious mood: major European stock markets are expected to decline on Monday, awaiting numerous macroeconomic releases, notably manufacturing activity in the eurozone.
- On the energy and industrial front, current developments highlight accelerating transitions: the release of a new IPCC report has been postponed, EU work on hydrogen is advancing, and incentives for energy efficiency and low-carbon solutions in mobility and aerospace sectors are expanding.
- However, these transition dynamics coexist with significant uncertainties in both energy and commodities, weighing on short- and medium-term investor visibility.
Commodities: Oil, Metals, Agriculture (Tensions & Paradoxes)
Oil / Energy
- OPEC+ confirmed at the beginning of December the maintenance of its current production quotas for the first quarter of 2026, despite a context of global oversupply and geopolitical uncertainties.
- According to recent analyses, energy prices overall are expected to decline in 2025 and 2026, as abundant supply coincides with sluggish global growth.
- In France, gas prices for the short-term period (Q+1 contracts) and long-term period (Y+1 contracts) show a significant decrease, reflecting expectations of a more relaxed market.
Implication: potentially cheaper oil and energy could reduce costs for consuming industries, but this scenario depends heavily on geopolitical stability and the evolution of demand.
Metals & Precious Metals
- Against the global downward trend in commodities, certain precious and industrial metals (silver, copper, gold) continue to attract investors. Silver, in particular, has surged, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and increased demand for “safe-haven” assets.
- This bias toward “safe” metals reflects broader macroeconomic concerns: debt, monetary uncertainties, and geopolitical risks, prompting some investors to reconsider portfolio diversification.
Agriculture & Food Commodities
- Prospects for European agriculture are deteriorating: in a recent article, the sector is facing a “real crisis.” For certain commodities (cereals, sugar beet), prices are falling sharply due to abundant global supply and increased competition.
- Concretely, farmers are suffering losses: despite high fixed costs (inputs, energy, labor), revenues are collapsing. Many are confronted with difficult choices such as reducing production, resorting to consolidations, or selling assets, threatening the sustainability of certain farms.
- Meanwhile, on global markets, some supply chains such as vegetable oils or oilseeds remain under pressure, which could continue to weigh on finished product prices.
Strategic Issues & Uncertainties to Monitor
- Maintaining OPEC+ production while global supply is abundant could progressively weaken current price support: a decrease in demand (linked to energy transition, economic slowdown, or increased renewable energy) could trigger a significant price drop, with domino effects across all commodity markets.
- For European agriculture, the agricultural price crisis poses social and structural challenges: collapsing margins, falling incomes, pressure on farms. This could accelerate deep restructuring closures, mergers, supply chain reconfigurations, or crop changes.
- For precious and industrial metals, the safe-haven role remains relevant but depends heavily on monetary policies (rate expectations, inflation, debt levels). Any reversal in central bank cycles (rate cuts or hikes, change in direction) could alter their attractiveness.
- Finally, energy transition, hydrogen development, and ESG and environmental requirements, particularly in Europe, add a layer of uncertainty, but also opportunities: reduced dependence on hydrocarbons, emergence of new sectors, provided regulatory frameworks and investments follow.
For Investors or Engaged Stakeholders: Key Considerations
- Prudent diversification: invest both in “safe” assets (precious and industrial metals) and in niches supported by the transition (hydrogen, renewable energies, sustainable agriculture).
- Monitoring European and international policies: taxation, ESG regulations, energy security, and the schedule of major conferences (climate, energy). These developments could reshape opportunities and risks.
- Sensitivity to agricultural production cycles: track global harvests, demand, and trade flows, as global overproduction (unexpected or unanticipated) can sharply depress prices, as illustrated by the current situation in Europe.
- Long-term scenarios: plan for 2026-2028 with caution: cheaper commodities, pressure on producers’ incomes, rising costs for environmental inputs, energy transition. This is not a “boom” environment but a reality to integrate into any investment or ESG engagement strategy.
Sources
1. Reuters: OPEC+ sticks to its ‘all is fine in oil’ mantra, but uncertainty rises
2. Économie Matin: Gas prices Monday, Dec 1, 2025
3. Agence Ecofin: Energy, metals, and food prices expected to decline in 2025-2026
4. Financial Times: European farmers face ‘real crisis’
5. World Bank Blogs: Grain prices soften, edible oils firm
6. Vietnam.vn: Coffee & pepper prices remain high
7. XTB France: Pre-opening European markets, Dec 1, 2025
8. Boursorama: New car registrations slump
9. Techniques de l’ingénieur: Daily press review Dec 1, 2025
10. Chretiens.com: Europe opens lower Dec 1, 2025