Global Outlook
Global growth remains positive but constrained: the IMF forecasts 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, while the WTO expects a – 0.2% decline in merchandise trade in 2025, followed by a +2.5% rebound in 2026. Inflation is easing but uneven: 2.2% in the euro area in September (Eurostat) and still above target in the United States, keeping both the ECB and the Fed in a cautious stance.
In China, September PMIs hovered around 50, indicating weak but stable activity, still hampered by real estate. Global food prices remain high (+6.9% year-on-year, FAO), while the IEA forecasts another 740 kb/d increase in oil demand in 2025.
Investor takeaway: moderate yet resilient growth, incomplete disinflation, restrictive rates, and greater regional divergence. Selectivity and diversification are key.
Regions to Watch
United States: Unemployment rose to 4.2% in September (BLS), with job creation slowing. Residential real estate is under pressure, with mortgage rates above 7%. Consumption is supported by real wage growth (+1.1% y/y). Industrial policy (IRA, semiconductors, clean energy) continues to underpin strategic sectors.
European Union: Inflation stood at 2.2% in September 2025, with services rising 3.2%. The ECB projects growth of only 1.2% in 2025. Energy-intensive industries (chemicals, metallurgy) show a contraction of – 3.1% y/y in industrial output. Opportunities exist in energy efficiency companies and low-carbon infrastructure.
China: The official manufacturing PMI was 50.2 in September (NBS). Real estate prices fell – 4.1% y/y (China Index Academy). In contrast, exports of batteries and EVs surged +28% y/y, reinforcing China’s dominance in strategic supply chains.
Africa & Latin America: Chile and Peru together account for 38% of global copper output, while Argentina and Brazil represent 25% of the global soybean market. Strong opportunities remain, but vulnerability to political risk and currency volatility persists.
Commodities & Agriculture
The FAO Food Price Index stood at 130.1 in August 2025, up +6.9% y/y. Meat (+9%), sugar (+7%) and vegetable oils (+10%) offset declines in cereals (– 3%) and dairy (– 2%). Biofuel policies in the US and EU absorb roughly 15% of soybean and rapeseed oil supplies.
Implications: fiscal and social pressure in importing countries, but opportunities in:
- Agritech (resilient seeds, precision irrigation)
- Food logistics (storage silos, cold chain transport)
- Climate insurance & agricultural derivatives
Critical Metals & Minerals
The energy transition continues to strain copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt. According to the IEA, lithium demand rose +30% in 2024, and copper consumption could outpace supply by 500,000 tons as early as 2025. The September Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia reduced global copper supply by 2%.
Implications: heightened price volatility (+12% for copper since January 2025). Investors are turning to:
- Battery & metals recycling
- Streaming and royalty companies
- Funds targeting transition infrastructure
Monetary Policy & Financial Markets
Central banks remain cautious.
- Fed: policy rate steady at 5.25 – 5.50% in September, unemployment at 4.2%.
- ECB: rates unchanged at 4.5%, projecting 2.1% inflation and 1.2% GDP growth in 2025.
Implications: - Restrictive rates for several more quarters
- Rising risks for commercial real estate, regional banking, and durable goods consumption
- Opportunities in short-term bonds, “quality” equities, and defensive infrastructure
For investors, growing market volatility demands active management and diversified allocations.
ESG Policy 2025: A Regulatory Turning Point
The CSRD is being phased in, with first reports due in 2025. The ESRS standards were streamlined in July 2025 to reduce the initial reporting burden. The CSDDD (CS3D), effective since 2024, will be binding from 2027 for large corporations.
Implications: compliance costs up +15% for some firms, but improved comparability of ESG data.
Opportunities: traceability technologies, ESG audit firms, and green bonds indexed to environmental KPIs.
Current Crises & Geopolitics
Energy: The IEA’s September report confirms oil demand will grow by +740 kb/d in 2025. Tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe fuel volatility in gas and oil.
Emerging Markets Debt: debt-to-GDP ratios exceed 70% in 15 middle-income countries, raising default risks.
Implications: gold (up +8% YTD) and high-grade sovereign bonds attract investors, while food and energy security investments gain traction.
Strategic Opportunities for Investors
- Recycling & Circular Economy: secondary metals market expected to grow +12% annually through 2030.
- Agritech & Climate Insurance: global market estimated at $25bn in 2025 (+18% y/y).
- ESG Technologies: compliance automation (AI, blockchain).
- Nearshoring Infrastructure: US manufacturing investments up +7% in 2025.
- Innovative Finance: green bond issuance expected to reach $650bn in 2025 (+20% y/y).
Conclusion
Q4 2025 begins with fragile resilience but abundant opportunities. Global growth is holding but constrained by high rates, supply imbalances, and geopolitical risks. For investors, the equation is clear: combine prudence and selective boldness.
Sectors such as clean energy, sustainable agriculture, recycling, and green finance not only provide protection but also offer structural growth levers. These are not mere safe havens – they are the true drivers of global economic transformation.
Sources
- International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2025
- World Trade Organization (WTO), Trade Forecast Update, September 2025
- OECD, Interim Outlook, September 2025
- Eurostat, Flash HICP, October 1, 2025
- European Central Bank (ECB), Monetary Policy Decision & Projections, September 11, 2025
- US Federal Reserve, FOMC Statement, September 17, 2025
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Employment Situation, September 2025
- China NBS, PMI September 2025; China Index Academy, Real Estate Data, September 2025
- FAO, Food Price Index, August 2025
- International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Market Report, September 2025; Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
- European Commission, CSRD & CSDDD (CS3D), 2025
- Reuters, Bloomberg, AFP (geopolitics and commodities coverage, 2025)