Between Tactical Relief and Structural Doubt, Global Finance Holds Its Breath
After a turbulent week marked by falling U.S. indexes and a 1.57% drop in the Nasdaq, the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Busan, on the sidelines of the APEC summit, brought a brief wave of optimism across global markets. Yet, analysts agree that this U.S.–China “truce” remains tactical rather than transformative offering temporary relief but little clarity for the months ahead.
Wall Street: A Truce That Fails to Lift the Fog
New York markets ended the week on an uncertain note. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 0.99% and 1.57% respectively, as investor sentiment weakened in response to mixed corporate earnings and fading tech momentum.
Meta’s shares fell more than 11%, while Chipotle plunged 18%, underscoring the growing fragility of U.S. consumer demand amid high household debt and cautious spending trends.
The Federal Reserve remains deliberately ambiguous. While cooling labor data and declining consumer confidence argue for a pause in rate hikes, sticky service inflation complicates the outlook. The dollar strengthened, pressuring exporters and adding strain to growth stocks.
All eyes now turn to next week’s PMI and employment data. A positive surprise could trigger a short-term rebound, but volatility remains the dominant narrative.
Europe: Waiting in Defensive Mode
In Europe, the tone remains subdued but controlled. The CAC 40 hovered near 7,350 points, supported by defensive sectors and a mild recovery in energy stocks, while the Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.4% on the week.
European investors paid limited attention to the Trump–Xi truce, focusing instead on the European Central Bank, where policymakers hinted at a prolonged pause in rate adjustments.
Germany remains weighed down by a sluggish manufacturing sector, while France benefits from renewed service activity and rising agricultural exports. The broader sentiment remains one of cautious patience, not renewed confidence.
Asia: A Calculated Breathing Space
The Trump–Xi meeting marked a tentative de-escalation. Beijing pledged to import 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this season, and up to 25 million over three years, signaling targeted commercial détente.
China also announced a one-year suspension of export controls on rare-earth minerals, easing concerns for American and Japanese manufacturers. Yet the deeper structural tensions persist over technology supply chains, semiconductor dominance, and digital sovereignty.
Asian markets welcomed the news cautiously: the Shanghai Composite gained 0.6% on the week, Tokyo’s Nikkei +0.9%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1.1%, suggesting relief rather than conviction.
Commodities: Between Stabilization and Caution
Oil prices stabilized around $83 per barrel (Brent) after a calm week shaped by balanced expectations between easing trade tensions and uncertain global demand.
Soybeans rose +3% following the Chinese purchase announcement, while rare-earth metals experienced strong price swings. Gold edged up to $4,025 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand.
For investors, commodities now send a mixed signal: short-term opportunities exist, but they hinge heavily on the sustainability of U.S.- China trade détente.
Cryptocurrencies: Ethereum at a Crossroads
Digital assets strengthened late in the week. Ethereum rose 2.9% to trade near $4,000, while Bitcoin hovered around $63,000.
Investors envision two paths ahead:
- a sustained rebound toward $4,500 if speculative flows return,
- or a pullback toward $3,700 should monetary conditions tighten.
The strong correlation between crypto and equity markets continues to limit digital assets’ diversification role in the current macro environment.
Outlook: November Begins Under Careful Watch
As markets reopen on Monday, three catalysts will set the tone for the first week of November:
- U.S. macro indicators : employment, inflation, and consumer sentiment.
- The implementation of the Trump-Xi commitments, especially agricultural purchases and export-control suspensions.
- Monetary guidance from the Fed and the ECB, as both face the challenge of managing a “soft-landing” without reigniting inflationary pressures.
Our Take
The Trump-Xi truce offers a tactical pause, not a strategic reset. It may revive short-term risk appetite but leaves fundamental concerns unresolved: geopolitical fragmentation, fiscal strain, and stretched valuations.
For investors, discernment remains the winning strategy:
- Favor resilient, liquid assets over speculative bets.
- Monitor the dollar’s strength and U.S. Treasury yields.
- Keep optionality (not overconfidence) as the guiding principle.
Patience, rather than instant performance, is likely the defining virtue for early November.
Sources
- Reuters : “Trump-Xi summit brings tactical truce, not major reset”
- Reuters : “China to buy 12 million metric tons of US soybeans this season, Bessent says”
- Reuters : “Global markets wrap-up: US equities slide after mixed earnings”
- Reuters : “US consumer confidence dips in October”
- Bloomberg : “Fed officials weigh timing of next rate move amid inflation pressures”
- CNBC : “Meta shares tumble 11% after cautious Q3 outlook”
- Investors.com : “Rare earth export controls delayed after Trump-Xi truce”
- Forex24.pro : “Ethereum forecast and analysis for Oct. 30, 2025”