As autumn sets in and harvests reach their peak, the global soybean sector is undergoing profound transformation. Amid new environmental regulations, market volatility, and unprecedented health advisories, stakeholders must navigate with agility. Here’s a synthesis of key challenges and opportunities for investors, farmers, and industry players.
1. 2024-2025 Harvest Overview: A Mixed Production Picture
- Pulses in France: Despite reduced cultivated area, pea yields remain satisfactory. According to Terres Inovia, early sowing and low disease pressure were key factors, with winter peas reaching 40-45 q/ha and spring peas 35-40 q/ha.
- Global Market: The latest USDA WASDE report highlights a record corn harvest but a tight soybean balance sheet, with reduced production. Soybean stocks are expected to decline, supporting prices.
2. EUDR: A Game-Changing Regulation
The European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), whose implementation has been delayed, mandates strict traceability requirements as outlined by the European Parliament:
- Obligations: Geolocation of plots and proof of zero deforestation since 2020.
- Risks: Penalties for non-compliance. As analysed by Donau Soja, countries will be classified by risk level.
- Impact on EU Producers: European farmers will need to provide geographic coordinates but will benefit from simplified procedures under EU directives.
3. Health: ANSES Warns on Isoflavones
France’s National Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (ANSES) recommends limiting soy consumption in collective catering, particularly for children and pregnant women. Reasons include:
- Endocrine Risks: High doses of isoflavones (phytoestrogens) may disrupt hormonal balance.
- Content Variability: A single glass of soy drink can exceed the daily limit for an adult. This advisory could influence demand.
4. Strategies for Investors and Farmers
- Diversification: Amid price volatility, Terres Inovia notes that protein peas offer margins comparable to wheat, with a positive preceding effect on subsequent crops.
- Technology Opportunities: Traceability tools are becoming essential to comply with EUDR, a necessity emphasised by Donau Soja.
- Market Monitoring: Soybean prices may remain supported in 2025-2026 due to tight global supplies, as reported by the USDA, while corn and wheat face pressure from abundant stocks.
5. Outlook and Factors to Watch
- South American Climate: Planting in Brazil and Argentina (September–November) will impact global soybean supply (USDA).
- Trade Policy: Chinese purchases and biofuel subsidies will influence demand.
- Varietal Innovation: Development of drought-resistant crops remains a research priority for technical institutes like Terres Inovia.
Conclusion: The 2025-2026 season will be defined by adaptation. Stakeholders who anticipate EUDR compliance, diversify crops, and respond to health advisories will gain a competitive edge. Strategic monitoring and collaboration across supply chains will be more critical than ever.
Integrated Sources: Terres Inovia, USDA WASDE, Donau Soja, European Parliament, ANSES.