Coal, the aging monarch of global energy, still sits upon its throne – but the seat trembles beneath it. Prices struggle to recover, buyers grow scarce, and producers clench their teeth. Despite the desperate needs of emerging economies, the world market moves in slow motion, as if numbed by the certainty of its impending decline.
Asia: The End of Insatiability
Beijing’s Double Game
China approved 50.4 GW of new coal plants in 2023 (Global Energy Monitor), yet uses them at barely half capacity (China Electricity Council). The result? Overflowing stockpiles and imports crawling forward at just 4.3% growth (Chinese Customs, 2025).
India’s Belt-Tightening
With domestic production hitting a record 1.1 billion tonnes (*Coal Ministry, 2024-25*), New Delhi has slashed imports by 14% (mjunction, April 2025). Only coastal plants still purchase abroad – and only at rock-bottom prices: $115-120/tonne (Platts).
Producers on the Brink
- Indonesia: 60% of mines lose money below $90/tonne (Indonesian Coal Mining Association)
- Australia: The global benchmark, Newcastle coal, languishes at $122.45 (ICE Futures)
- Russia’s Fire Sale: Selling to China at $83-87/tonne – a 38% discount to pre-sanction EU prices (Argus). A boon for Beijing, a mounting challenge for Moscow.
Europe, Gas, and the Domino Effect
The winter of 2024-25 laid bare an inconvenient truth: when gas prices spike (€42/MWh in January, EEX), coal stages a comeback (+17% generation, ENTSO-E). Yet EU imports still fell 23% year-on-year (Eurostat).
In Asia, even minor LNG tensions ($16/MMBtu in February, JKM) trigger coal import surges. Vietnam, for instance, boosted purchases by 22% in a single month (Vietnam Customs).
Outlook: The Inevitable, Uneven Decline
Forecasters agree:
- $98-108/tonne in 2025 (IEA)
- Global demand to drop 2.3% (World Bank)
Climate policies accelerate the fall: OECD nations have effectively banned financing for new plants (OECD, 2024). Yet China continues pumping $6.2 billion into overseas projects (Global Energy Monitor). The market will remain oversupplied until at least 2026.
Farewell, Your Majesty?
Coal will not die in a day. Too many nations depend on it; too many interests are at stake. But its twilight has undeniably begun – slow, uneven, and occasionally interrupted by a brutal winter or gas panic… yet undeniably real.
As one Singapore trader murmurs: “The king is dead… long live the king? Unlikely.”
Sources
- Global Energy Monitor – *Boom and Bust Coal 2023/24*
- China Electricity Council – Utilization statistics (2023)
- Chinese Customs – Import reports (Jan 2025)
- Indian Coal Ministry – Annual bulletin (2024-25)
- Eurostat – EU energy trade (Mar 2025)
- IEA – Coal Market Update 2025
- World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook (Apr 2025)
- OECD – Fossil fuel finance report (2024)
- Platts/Argus/ICE – Price benchmarks (May 2025)
- ENTSO-E – Power generation data (Feb 2025)